Why Congress Must Play Second Fiddle to Akhilesh in Uttar Pradesh Assembly Polls - The Wire

Why Congress Must Play Second Fiddle to Akhilesh in Uttar Pradesh Assembly Polls

New Delhi: Among the takeaways from the postmortem of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election result for the Samajwadi Party (SP) was this idea that it ceded far too many seats to its weaker coalition partner, the Congress. As part of the arrangement, the grand old party contested over 110 seats – including several ‘friendly fights’ – out of the total 403.

The eventual outcome proved disastrous for both parties: while the SP slumped to just 47 seats and lost power, the Congress, which was lagging in fourth place but still had a respectable vote and seat share (28 seats and 11.63% in 2012), was reduced to a paltry seven. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance stormed to power with a sweeping majority of 325 seats.

Now, with just three months remaining before the 2027 Assembly election, unmistakable early signs of bickering over seat distribution have re-emerged between the two INDIA bloc partners.

‘Public stands with Akhilesh Yadav, the Congress has no contribution in this regard’: SP leader

The friction has already spilled into the public domain. Senior Congress leaders have publicly claimed that the party deserves to contest at least 150 seats.

Rajendra Pal Gautam, the All India Congress Committee (AICC) in-charge of Uttar Pradesh, has repeatedly insisted that any alliance must be premised on equal respect and a proportionate share. “Who asked for 150 seats? I had actually spoken about 200,” Gautam told a news agency recently, adopting an aggressive posture.

According to Gautam – a prominent Dalit leader who joined the Congress in September 2024 after resigning from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) – the SP secured 37 parliamentary seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election largely due to Rahul Gandhi’s campaign and his emergence as a national champion of social justice and constitutional rights.

Gautam argued that even Akhilesh Yadav’s father, late Mulayam Singh Yadav, never won as many seats when running a full-fledged government in Uttar Pradesh, nor did Akhilesh achieve such numbers when the SP allied with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 2019.

SP leaders have pushed back against the Congress' public posturing. Shiv Pal Singh Patel, SP Member of Parliament from Pratapgarh, termed the demand for 150 seats "highly unreasonable" given the current ground realities.

He asserted that the Congress legitimately deserved around 25 to 30 seats, which could at best be stretched to 50 during negotiations. Patel argued that the Congress ought to demand seats based strictly on their "sankhya and aukat" (actual numbers and ground standing) rather than making inflated demands.

“Everyone knows that only Akhilesh Yadav can provide good governance, ensure justice for all, and work for the welfare of everyone. That is why the public stands with Akhilesh Yadav; the Congress has no contribution in this regard,” said Patel.

While these leaders will not have the final say on seat-sharing – a decision that rests entirely with the top central leadership of both parties – the exchange raises several questions about the workings of the alliance.

Why is an united alliance an absolute necessity?

It is beyond doubt that to mount a formidable challenge against the BJP and its array of allies, the Opposition must present a seamlessly united front. The sooner this alliance materialises, the better its prospects.

The two parties face a daunting road ahead: finalising a mutually acceptable seat-sharing formula, possibly accommodating smaller caste-based partners, forging a common narrative, selecting winning candidates and avoiding rebellions, and coordinating joint public rallies and ground campaigns.

While the Congress is nationally relevant and has a deep historic relationship with Uttar Pradesh, when it comes to social calculus and organisational muscle, it adds little to the Opposition arithmetic.

The party does not enjoy the loyalty of any particular caste group or region. In other words, there is little it can ‘transfer’ to its ally. In 2022, when Congress fought alone and had Priyanka Gandhi lead the charge, it won just two seats after contesting almost 400.

Its primary card has been the implicit threat of further fracturing Opposition votes, especially Muslims, if it contests alone or with smaller allies not aligned with the SP. Even for that simple reason alone, a united alliance remains an absolute necessity for both sides.

However, recent comments by Congress leaders have indicated that along with trying to defeat the BJP, the party is simultaneously attempting to expand its footprint in the state on the back of its improved 2024 performance. Or at least the party is trying to arm-twist its ally to get favourable seats in a bid to make a comeback in the state by winning more MLAs.

For a party that has been in the doldrums in the state, this is hardly the moment for expansion. Rather, it demands pragmatic collaboration and a realistic acceptance of its role as a deputy to an ascendant Akhilesh-led SP.

In electoral politics, the arithmetic of complementary or transferable votes makes a big difference especially if the allies share a common narrative.

For instance, through its alliance with jati-based smaller parties such as the Nishad Party, Apna Dal (Soneylal), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, the BJP gets additional and focused support of Nishads, Kurmis, Jats and Rajbhars in their pockets of influence. This is achieved through a mix of Hindutva, increased representation in power, shared adversary towards Yadavs and Muslims, and strategic implementation of welfare schemes.

Even with larger parties such as the BSP, the ally is guaranteed a major chunk of the Jatav Dalit vote.

In 2022, the SP also benefitted through an alliance with half-a-dozen smaller allies, all of whom commanded support among a section of the backward castes.

The Congress brings no such immediate benefits that can single-handedly swing an election through the inclusion of an entire community, sub-caste or regional group. Built as an umbrella organisation, the Congress accommodates all social sections without belonging to anyone.

While this broad appeal remains an asset at the national level, at the state level, in particular in Uttar Pradesh, this creates a void in a high-octane battle of identities. There is no dedicated vote that the Congress can reliably trigger for itself or transfer to another party.

Even in its pocket boroughs of Amethi and Rae Bareli, it has largely depended on the tacit understanding with the SP. Moreover, while the Gandhis have won from these two seats in parliamentary elections, in state elections, the SP has been winning more seats even here.

In the 2022 Assembly polls, out of the ten seats in Amethi and Rae Bareli, the SP won six while the BJP four. The Congress drew a complete blank.

Congress severely lacks regional leaders with mass appeal

Much of the aggressive rhetoric deployed by Congress leaders like Rajendra Pal Gautam and Saharanpur MP Imran Masood (who has also been vocal in demanding an increased share) centers on projecting Rahul Gandhi as the main face of the Opposition. They have even credited Rahul Gandhi for the stellar performance of the alliance in 2024.

While Rahul Gandhi has indeed made evident changes to his functioning and adopted a more inclusive messaging around social justice, this appraisal seems a bit misplaced. The Congress in Uttar Pradesh severely lacks regional leaders with mass appeal.

The notion that the numerically-significant Dalit voters prefer the Congress symbol or that they favour Rahul Gandhi over Akhilesh Yadav and his cycle, as purported by a section of Congress leaders, lacks empirical backing or political logic.

Crucially, any organisational growth achieved by the Congress at this stage in Uttar Pradesh would come primarily at the expense of the SP or the BSP rather than the BJP – an outcome that offers no strategic gain to the broader Opposition. Congress leaders have also displayed inconsistency while exploring alternative options.

In May 2026, party leaders Gautam and MP Tanuj Punia caused considerable embarrassment when they made an unannounced visit to BSP chief Mayawati’s residence in Lucknow, only to be turned away at the gate.

Such uncoordinated public posturing generates empty noise that fails to galvanise ground cadres and instead sends confusing signals to the public. The only viable path forward for the Congress is to position itself as the primary national alternative to the BJP, which requires conceding space to established regional forces in state elections.

Battle between Adityanath and Akhilesh

The battle in Uttar Pradesh in 2027 is between two faces: Adityanath and Akhilesh. By attempting to pit Rahul Gandhi against Akhilesh in a rivalry for electoral credit, the alliance merely distracts from its core purpose. When Akhilesh opted to enter an electoral pact with the Congress in 2017, the political compulsions were vastly different.

During the 2016–2017 period, impaired by an intense family feud, facing sustained anti-incumbency, and confronting an aggressive BJP strategy and its communal narrative, Akhilesh sought to consolidate the state’s crucial 19% Muslim electorate against a potential Dalit-Muslim coalition of the BSP, which was then still in contention.

To achieve this, he stitched together an alliance with the Congress. The desperate union, in which the Congress fought on more than 100 seats despite being a marginal player for almost three decades, was also fraught with opportunism as the parties had friendly clashes on a number of seats. The alliance did not get the desired results and the “UP ke ladke” slogan fell flat.

The political terrain has shifted tremendously since then. Today, the undisputed "UP ka ladka" is Akhilesh, under whose leadership the state Opposition is challenging the BJP. He stands as the sole, unquestioned chief ministerial face of the coalition.

The SP, beyond retaining its core support among Yadavs (roughly 9–10% of the state population) and Muslims (19.5%), has successfully expanded its outreach to Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and Dalit communities.

Akhilesh's PDA framework (Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) has presented a social challenge to the BJP’s broad Hindu consolidation.

In the 2022 Assembly election, powered by a narrative centered on social justice for backward classes and supported by smaller OBC-based parties, the SP alliance secured 125 seats.

With the successful results of 2024, when Akhilesh implemented the PDA, he has only come out stronger. If the 2017 alliance with Congress was a compulsion for him, the 2027 alliance would be a strategic move of unity and consolidation.

The SP possesses a loyal, combative support base, while Akhilesh’s personal standing has surged as he directly confronts the Adityanath administration on issues of social justice and governance.

To voters in Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh is viewed not merely as a regional leader, but as a central figure in national politics, commanding a state that sends 80 MPs to parliament and holds 403 Assembly seats. His PDA slogan has re-energised the Opposition and also attracted leaders traditionally not associated with the SP.

Under these circumstances, attempts by the Congress to demand a disproportionate share of seats and stress the alliance, is counterproductive; 2027 is Akhilesh’s moment in the making, if at all there is to be a change in power.

Congress should also facilitate the inclusion of smaller parties

The right time for the Congress to rebuild its organisational presence in Uttar Pradesh – which remains essential to its long-term national revival – will open after the Opposition successfully unseats the Adityanath government.

If the alliance succeeds, that growth phase can naturally follow toward 2029. For the present, both the Congress and the broader Opposition would be far better served if the party accepts a supporting role.

The Congress should also facilitate the inclusion of smaller parties into the alliance. For instance, former minister and important OBC leader Swami Prasad Maurya met Rahul Gandhi recently to explore an electoral understanding.

Similarly, smaller parties like the Apna Dal (Kameravadi) and the Janvadi Party (Socialist), which allied with the SP in 2022, have signaled a willingness to join the Congress-led INDIA bloc. Integrating these smaller outfits would provide the coalition with valuable, concentrated caste support in specific local pockets.

With a wide array of public grievances to leverage – including widespread youth unemployment, dilution of reservation policies, persistent inflation, administrative excesses, integrity of the election system at stake and stagnant living standards – the alliance must smooth out its internal seat-sharing negotiations to avoid negative press in the coming weeks.

Any public display of discord will inevitably be amplified by the ruling BJP and the media, distracting voters from the primary objective of presenting a unified alternative. Given the limited time remaining before the campaign begins in earnest, there is no room for public bickering or political gamesmanship.

While the alliance partners may project a united front, their underlying political realities remain fundamentally different. An ascendant SP is fighting to capture power and consolidate its substantial gains made since 2022. The Congress, by contrast, is still competing for long-term relevance and survival in the state.

The Congress would do well to remember that its recent parliamentary gains in Uttar Pradesh were achieved primarily on the strength of the SP.

Congress and SP must speak the same language

With time running out, how these two parties coordinate a unified, state-wide strategy remains to be seen. Both parties can draw valuable lessons from their 2017 experience: rather than spending energy highlighting personal chemistry between top leaders and bickering over seats, they must forcefully communicate to the electorate why a change of government is imperative.

The SP’s PDA strategy and Rahul Gandhi’s vocal advocacy for OBC and Dalit rights must be synthesised into a single, seamless narrative. The Congress and SP must speak the same language till March 2027.

Ultimately, Akhilesh may choose to concede more seats to the Congress than the party merits strictly on paper. This could be done by potentially offering difficult BJP strongholds or urban constituencies that the SP struggles to win on its own, a Congress leader who was part of the seat-sharing talks in the last election told The Wire.

Indeed, Akhilesh has consistently tried to defuse public friction, affirming that the 2024 coalition will remain intact for 2027. The SP chief on Sunday emphasised that the focus must remain on collective victory rather than seat counts.

“Let us reiterate: it is not about the seats, but about the victory," Akhilesh stated on X.

"This victory will transcend the individual parties of our alliance; it will be the triumph of our collective effort – an effort driven by the constant struggle to ensure that communalism never rears its head again, that democracy, the Constitution, and reservation remain untouched by the BJP, and that the nation’s harmony flourishes once more, with progress and prosperity smiling upon the country,” he added.

Since the alliance is inevitable and necessary, it is best for both parties to sort all discussions internally, clinically and without delay. When the election campaign begins in a few weeks, public discourse should centre squarely on the failures of the Adityanath government and the alternative vision for governance – not on the fragility of their coalition.

Omar Rashid is an independent journalist.

This article went live on October eighth, two thousand twenty six, at ten minutes past six in the evening.The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.

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